ABCNEWS IOWA: O-33; H-29; E-20 [UPDATE w/NEW AD]

UPDATE: Man, you can't fake having cute kids...nice ad.

So much for this fictional storyline.  (Just goes to show that you shouldn't rely on polling outfits that haven't polled Iowa before and model it based on a 15% turnout for those under 45 years of age...)

Rather, ABCNews/WashingtonPost, which has been polling Iowa all year (here is last month's poll), have the race close, but with Obama maintaining his lead:

Obama: 33 (+3)

Clinton: 29 (+3)

Edwards: 20 (-2)

For those of you that like the nitty-gritty, here are the details of this months poll.

I STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU READ THIS...IT IS THE BEST SNAPSHOT OF THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NUMBERS.

One thing to note:

In this poll, when supporters of single-digit candidates are reallocated to their second choice among the top three, Obama goes to a lead, with 37 percent support; Clinton has 31 percent, Edwards 26 percent.

As such, only second-choices of non-viable candidates are included, a far better method than checking everyone's second choice.

A second thing to note:

Among people who say they’ve attended a previous caucus, the race is a three-way dead-heat – 26-25-24 percent for Obama-Clinton-Edwards. It’s among first-timers that the contest shakes up – 42-33-15 percent among those three. How many first-timers appear, again, will be crucial.

As such, anyone who tells you Obama doesn't bring new people into the political process is LYING.  Think of what this could mean in a general election...

Finally, let's all remember that Iowa is VERY hard to poll.

One poll, like last night's InsiderAdvantage, doesn't tell us a thing.  And while I know Edwards' supporters were (justifiably) excited about it, it still showed Obama up among the likeliest caucus goers--as such, truth in advertising would be prudent when dealing with numbers.

For best Iowa snapshot, go here.